What if you could predict when your assets will fail?

Being able to predict failure patterns of street assets may significantly reduce the cost of maintenance

Being able to predict failure patterns of street assets may significantly reduce the cost of maintenance

If you manage public assets, some feel that you are fundamentally responsible for providing a service to citizens around the street scene, which itself partially defines the society in which they live. Your professional life may revolve around the maintenance of a sub set of street scene assets and belonging to a professional organisation may be an important part of how you acquire the knowledge that helps you to optimise effective maintenance within the available funds.

Someone in your team is publicly accountable and will have to provide feedback to stakeholders in the “Value Chain” and best practice may indicate a change in maintenance practice. Have we already seen one or two examples of such changes and are we about to witness others?

In the pursuit of providing a principle road network, Inspectors walked along the road and pavements noting down road defects. Where a road was defective over a wide area, treatments were recommended and, if the budget was available, work carried out. Then came the high speed survey machines and a new approach to the science of Pavement Management based on more data, much more data. Instead of acting mainly reactively, Highways Managers started to try to predict when a road would fail, having noticed that sums needed to bring roads back to their design standard suddenly increased (below a certain level of deterioration) with time.

The sequence of activities associated with this style of maintenance is judged by the industry to be lower cost and might be applicable in other Street Scene situations. The sequence is:

1. Inventory Definition

2. Pavement Inspection

3. Condition Assessment

4. Condition Prediction

5. Condition Analysis

6. Work Planning

UKPMS is kept up to date by the industry for the industry

UKPMS is kept up to date by the industry for the industry

Agreed algorithms to predict deterioration of roads are used by all Government Agencies in the UK that are the Custodians of Public Roads and the practice is common throughout the world with tailored algorithms to suits the political and physical climate in each region.

Can this principle be applied to other street scene assets or services? Would it provide a better return on our long term public spend or provide better services at a lower cost (the battle cry of UK Government today). Did it, indeed, provide an improvement over the previous position before UKPMS and, if so, how and why?

High speed machines travel at 60mph along pre-defined routes Roads (1) and collect data (2) which is processed and fed into software (3) which records Condition Assessments as set out in the UKPMS “code of practice” and time/date stamps them. Software is then used with the agreed algorithms to predict how the condition of the road will change over time (4) so that an analysis (5) of the overall road network condition can be made in preparation to be tested against available funds in order to proposed optimised treatments ahead of work planning (6).

The pre-requisites of 1-6 are that there is a standard way of doing each step and that enough reliable data has been collected over the years to enable robust predictions to be made, whilst data about the cost of treatment options is kept current for stages 5 and 6 particularly. It is also likely that the optimised treatment dependent upon available funds will show a shortfall, indicating the need for a further condition prediction cycle where the eventual deterioration of the road will render is unusable….leading in turn to a cycle of seeking additional funds to eventually minimise the spend on maintenance over the long term. This may be incompatible with short term Political aims, of course.

So, if we are happy that this method might be transferable to other public assets/public services, we need to ask the question “has the underlying science been done and enough data been collected?” An example is Street Lighting, where the cost of Lamp replacement to a 30m high column on a busy road junction is very high and to smaller ones is still relatively high. To this date, most Custodians of this invaluable public asset have used “Bulk Lamp change” as the most cost effective way of ensuring that our streets are lit to an appropriate level. The 2009 Street Lighting Engineer’s annual conference had quite a few papers presented on topics around “remote sensors”, some proposing that a revolution in cost reduction might be available through their use. Street Lighting Engineers also have to accurately report the energy usage to the energy supplier in the UK, according to an industry standard and these devices might be able to remotely control and vary the level of light, thus reducing the energy usage and provide a realistic “Return On Investment” (ROI) based on this characteristic alone. If they can also predict when a light is about to fail, does this mean that the cost of Lamp replacement will reduce? Bulk Lamp change was introduced for a reason and maybe there is not enough data around today to make that judgement.

I guess it might be appropriate to go through the 6 stage that defines PMS to see if one is happy with the ROI figures provided by the purveyors of the devices and software surrounding this science – and that it for Lighting Engineers to measure and “report back”. Time will tell.

What about Bridges? That is being done and we expect an update from the scientists collecting and examining the data via the County Surveyor Society (CSS) in April 2010.

Theatrical Street Scene at night in Belgium - saving taxpayers money?

Theatrical Street Scene at night in Belgium - saving taxpayers money?

How about our Parks, Green assets and sports areas? What about the Public Trees? And what about the Bins our refuse and recyclables are collected from?

Looking at the 8 types of Maintenance from last week’s post, I wonder what outsourced companies might agree with the Municipal Organisations of tomorrow and how the cost of public services will change with time. Will we create revolutions to reduce public spending or will we provide better and safer streets, where, perhaps, criminals are caught as they walk by Street Lamp Columns with retina scanners mounted at a vandal-proof height?

Will the street lights be dimmed at 9pm and raised at 11pm to signal that it is time to go home, as in a theatre – it is already happening in Belgium!

Eight types of Maintenance

An interesting window into your world?

An interesting window into your world?

Universities, Professional Organisations and Institutes participate in the never ending march towards more efficient operational maintenance by contributing to the “body of knowledge” openly shared between the ten or so domains that constitute “Public Infrastructure Maintenance”.   In this week’s post, I offer a categorisation of eight types of maintenance that could apply to “assets” and write a few words about the relevance of each to the Maintenance of Public Infrastructure Assets.  If this is an area you feel passionately about, which not click the “comments” word at the top of the article and send me your comments – have I missed something, do you have a contra-opinion or does this simply not work in your geography?

1. “Run to Failure” or “Reactive”: often where budgets are far outweighed by the available resources, both staff and money.  Examples might be Tree Management, Maintenance of Street Furniture, replacement of kerbstones and gulley tops (drain covers).

2. “Event driven” maintenance: where an event drives the need for action, such as Graffitti removal and many types of property repair, as well as road based events, such as road traffic collisions requiring repairs to the road surface or street asset.

3. “Calendar based”, “Pre-planned” or “Routine” maintenance: often applicable to areas such as Grass cutting, horticultural activities such as rose of flower bed maintenance and the longer term cycles, such as Tree Pruning and even long-term cycles such as building wiring replacement (every 25 years) and roof tile replacement (every 40 years for concrete interlocking tiles).

4. “Statistical based”: a preventative maintenance technique common with machine and possibly vehicle maintenance.  There is usually a loop back into the prediction cycle by taking sensor readings from running machines and this category is common in manufacturing.

5. “Condition based”: often where a human inspection results in maintenance actions being collated and then issued as funds allow.  This can also include where sensors relay a signal and software interprets each type of signal so that an inspection event or a maintenance event is triggered.

6. “Predictive Maintenance”: In the context of Public assets, this may seem similar to Statistical based maintenance.  Bridges and PMS have inspections based on a predictive cycle but the replacement of Street Light Lamps could be said to be predicitive as no ongoing revision it taking place as with Statistical maintenance.  Predictive Maintenance may prevail over statistical techniques in Public life as Infrastructure Assets have a high consequence of failure and thus public liability is ameliorated.  Think of a Tree falling on a car or even a Bridge collapse…we have heard of such catastrophes.

7. “Reliability Centred Maintenace”: Not so common with Public Infrastructure Assets as Inspection based maintenance is often swapped out.  An example might be the replacement of bearings on a bridge…it might not be acceptable to have a target of 98% non-failure whereas a baked bean production machine might suit this approach.

8. “Financially Optimised Maintenance”: Carry out Maintenance to fit the available funds.  In Public life in the UK and other countries, we might notice PMS and Bridges moving in this direction.  Certainly we notice many algorithms in PMS seeking to optimise proposed treatments based on a available funds rather than maximising safety through surface to tyre friction.

Framework

Framework

Naturally, one could write  book or even a series of books on this subject and the continuous improvement of the eights types of maintenance within the context of many asset types.  

One article is but a drop in the ocean and offers a framework for discussion.  As the context for Maintenance changes in the post recession world we find ourselves in, we are all looking for more cost effective ways to maintain the public street vista that is what most citizens take for granted.  Never ending rounds of cost cuts are coming (did they ever not stop) and, in the inter-connected 24 hours world of today, citizens are demanding higher quality services. 

Do the eight categories offer a new window to look through?  This article does not offer content on the other side of the glass, which is for the many vocational professionals to decide, but well framed windows can stimulate comment!

Do you manage assets or provide services?

Millau Bridge, Tarn Valley, Southern France

Millau Bridge, Tarn Valley, Southern France

Employees in Local, Regional and Central Government Agencies, their partners and a plethora of stakeholders turn up for work each day and do their part in the “Value Chain” of Public Infrastructure Maintenance.  Some inspect assets, others make difficult decisions about expenditure based on limited funds and resources.  Yet others are skilled tradespeople and craftspeople who actually do the jobs that repair, install or decommission assets.

Are these people experts in Maintenance Management?  Are the assets themselves actually important?  Or is the Service the thing of importance?

Looking at Refuse collection services, the publicly owned refuse bin is not that which one normally focuses on as an employee in a Municipal Cleansing and Waste work group; the service is what draws delivery staff attention – is it timely, effective, cost effective?

When we look at other assets, we might be drawn to other conclusions.  A Bridge Engineer will definitely focus their working efforts on the Condition of components of a Bridge in the context of failure of the whole Asset.  With catastrophic consequences, Bridge failure is the correct focus yet one may ask if all it does is provides a service, as part of a Highway…whose function is to facilitate the efficient movement of citizens between various buildings.  Some Bridges are destinations, with intrinsic beauty and statuesque appeal such as the Millau Bridge in Southern France or the Fehman Belt Bridge in the Baltic Sea.

Even beautiful assets have function, the ambition of the designer or commissioning body had the vision to make something with intrinsic beauty, adding a secondary function of making a statement about that part of the world, turning “it” into a destination or, more likely, providing function within the context of a beautiful area. 

...you affect the lives of citizens in a profound way

...you affect the lives of citizens in a profound way

Back to the people…Assets are key to providing services?  Perhaps.  If so, consider the process of maintaining the road.  It needs to be available in perpetuity, in the best condition that supports the transport requirements of the day and unavailable for the least amount of time.  People have developed science to predict the best time to do the least amount of work to keep the road available and this science can be flexed for differing budgets and differing desired road conditions (Pavement Management).  The people who carry out this “science” are called Pavement Engineers and they care about the asset; their managers and policy makers care about the service.  In consultation with “Government” about Public funds and sometimes with citizens (in a democracy) about desired quality, they set out the rules and parameters for the Engineers to conduct their Asset Maintenance Science.

Now to the staff involved in “event driven maintenance”.  There are many aspects of Street Based Asset Maintenance in which Events drive most of the remedial actions.  Examples include Graffiti removal, many types of property repair, Street Lamp replacements, clearing fly tipping, providing a Bulky Household collection, clearing a fallen tree…none of which would ever happen without their event…amusing thought, perhaps, clearing a fallen tree that isn’t there yet?  “Event Driven Maintenance” could be a topic in a University course and, indeed, tomes have been written about this aspect of Infrastructure Maintenance, but it is really all about providing a service to citizens so that they enjoy a great built environment.

Manage assets or provide services?  The TEAM has a profound effect on the lives of its citizens.

Manage assets or provide services? The TEAM has a profound effect on the lives of its citizens.

I went to one of the big Business Analyst firms the other day and the Director of Public Infrastructure and I mused about how most citizens hardly notice the well maintained Public assets that ARE Britain, or New Zealand, or Melbourne and so on.  Citizens visit other parts of the world and notice that Refuse in (perhaps) The Gambia is collected every month, when a large truck goes along the main streets and most refuse on the street is collected and thrown into the back of large trucks by intimidating crews; children are kept away and cars are parked off of the route whilst domestic refuse and unwanted items are put out into the now empty street.  You would not be asking for the Bin to be a different shape, which colour should be used for recyclables or whether it had an ID chip but you might be asking for weekly collections as a start point! 

So we are focused back on the service. 

My conclusions is that TEAMS provide services to citizens.  Within the team, Engineers and Scientists practise aspects of the appropriate Asset Maintenance Management techniques. Others within the team make decisions levels of service to balance public funds with citizen demands.

On a purely personal note, I observe that those involved in all aspects of Managing public assets and providing public services affect our lives much more than we usually think about…until we are confronted with very different levels of service or public assets that are clearly in a very different condition.  Oh, and by the way, the public would like to hardly notice your 24/7/365 efforts, but want to feel really good about where they live.

To answer my own question “Do you manage assets or provide services?”, I choose an answer with an added observation: Your team does both and, in so doing, you have a profound effect on all of the citizens you serve.

Will there be a case for IT Investment in the short term?

Data from the ONCWith Public Sector borrowing soaring, is it nevertheless still true that IT investment that actually saves money in total Return On Investment (ROI) will be in vogue during the next 18 months?  Have we been so used to the common sense approach of actually providing the same services for less (or better services for the same money) that the strong signals by both major Political parties that they are about to reduce public spending are being heard but not listened to?

Here are the stats from the Office for National Statistics (ONC).  The public sector showed a deficit on current budget of £11.3 billion in September 2009, compared with a deficit of £7.6 billion in September 2008.

More generally, the public sector recorded deficits between 1991/92 and 1997/98 before moving into surplus in 1998/99. Deficits have been recorded since 2002/03.

An alternative measure of the public sector fiscal position is public sector net borrowing. This additionally takes account of capital investment. In September 2009, there was net borrowing of £14.8 billion, which compares with borrowing of £8.7 billion in September 2008. The Budget forecast for 2009/10 is net borrowing of £175 billion.

Public sector net debt, expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), was 59 per cent at the end of September 2009 compared with 48.4 per cent at end of September 2008. Net debt was £824.8 billion at the end of September compared with £695.2 billion a year earlier.

Sobering numbers but will the focus on building services around the citizen prevail, as long as a provable ROI case can be documented ahead of major purchasing decisions…and then, of course, monitored?

Confirm v9 launched on time

October 5th, 2009 on time

Launch on time, version 9

Confirm v9 was launched on Monday 5th October, at 10.00 a.m. and the launch event was a webinar to existing users.  The webinar was recorded and can be viewed by any users on demand.  If you would like to see the recording, simply contact your Account Manager or myself for the link.

We will be holding eight on-line live webinars every Tuesday starting 13th october at 10.00 a.m. UK time demonstrating specific area of the Product and highlighting the version 9 updates.  All users will have received an email this morning (Thursday 8th October) with details of how to register for the webinar.  Once again, if you would like to attend please use the normal contacts.

The webinar method for the launch has received much praise with comments such as “it allows us to see the launch and demonstrations from our desk and means that, in these times of relatively low staff numbers, we don’t miss out” (my paraphrasing).

I hope to see our users at Tuesday’s first product demonstration webinar, which focuses on Confirm Mobile – lots of new capabilities with v9 – and Jonathan Mynott is presenting.  Why not register now?

Dashboard driven for the first time in v9 – Stunning!

Stunning functionality

Dashboard driven for the first time in version 9

Confirm has, up until now, been able to be menu driven, map driven or even mobile driven, depending on the user’s role.  Version 9 introduces a series of enhancements and some of them allow the system, for the first time, to be dashboard driven.  Confirm users will be receiving an email this coming week that will show them how to register for the forthcoming webinars, where version 9 will be demonstrated.

I set Confirm up to be Dashboard driven for the first time on Friday and it felt like one of those “Victory in mine” moments (…Family Guy – it’s Stewie’s catch phrase…still puzzled, google it or search on YouTube).

Confirm v9 Webinar dates available

Confirm - going like a train since November 1997

Confirm - going like a train since November 1997

With Confirm v9 being launched on October 5th, the webinar dates are published for the first time on our “downloads” page.  Have a look, using the TABs at the top of this page.

We have so much in 2009 in v9 that 9 webinars are needed.  Each will be 45 minutes long. We are using Webex and those who have registered will receive an email, then click on a “link” 5 minutes before the webinar is due to begin. 

For users who have not used this capability before, it may be an idea to have a word with your IT department to check that your PC will be OK and, of course, make sure you can be by a telephone.

In the next two weeks, all Confirm users will be receiving an email from Pitney Bowes Business Insight with details of the launch webinars and how to register.  The webinars will show the new functionality in the context of their domain and Confirm’s configurable workflows…a “contextual style” rather than listing each enhancement and letting users work it out for themselves. 

We are hoping that most Confirm users will be able to view the enhancements rather than what happened in previous years when only those who attended “launch events” got to see them and ask questions.

This week’s picture?  Locomotive 999 in the Museum of Science and Industry.  Confirm’s “Industry” is Government and “Science” - well, there are ten “Profession based Industries” that have developed the science of managing public infrastructure assets and our users are involved with all of them: Roads, Bridges, Lighting, Street Works, PMS, Property Maintenance, Horticulture, Arboriculture, Cleansing and Waste.  

Confirm, of course, can deal with any permutation of them…going like a train since November 1997!

Pure Gold 999 – Confirm v9

Confirm v9 is being launched on October 5th 2009 with 9 webinars: Pure Gold!

Confirm v9 is being launched on October 5th 2009 with 9 webinars: Pure Gold!

They say that pure Gold is .999 and I have been looking at the first draft of the What’s new in Confirm v9 document.  It’s 20 pages with no pictures and screen-shots, reflecting the amount of development that has gone into the 2009 version.

Dividing the enhancements into categories is quite difficult – what categories should be used.  I have decided to focus on the business benefit that is accrued to our users and potential users.  The launch Webex seminars (which will be recorded, so don’t worry of you miss one, you can play it back on demand) will bring out the enhancements in the context of what Confirm can now do for your business.

The categories that seem to ring (another golden reference) true at the moment are:

1. User ideas that have been turned into Confirm enhancements

2. Ideas that have arisen when Users have tested preliminary versions of enhancements and our developers have followed the software into the field; a sort of “now I see the new functionality, it would also be an idea if it could also do x or y or z”.  I call these User Centred Design (UCD) ideas.

3. Technology updates (it now works with Oracle 11 or MapInfo v10 and so on).

4. New module (some of which also will include ideas in Category 2)

The v9 enhancements are spread across all 10 domains that Confirm covers: Highways/Roads; Structures/Bridges; Street Lighting; PMS; Street Works; Property Maintenance; Grounds; Trees; Street Cleaning and Refuse/Waste.

We recognise the “pure Gold” attitude of Confirm users who ultimately bring more efficient public services to citizens.  Citizens really want the “provision” part to be invisible, but so efficient that they never see it.  For example, Citizens want perfect roads, all of the time and no traffic jams; they want Parks to play in with perfect grass, beautiful flowers, clean seats, empty bins and safe play areas for the young citizens and no mowers in sight; they want the streets that they use to be clean, well light and safe without tripping over Mechanical Street Sweepers.

We will keep our focus in the days leading up to the launch, showing how your organisation will benefit in playing its part in the Value chain.

And this week’s picture?  Part of “pure gold” – .999 percent pure and as pure as possible.

999 Confirm – helping you improve efficiency

Confirm v9 launches on October 5th, 2009 and is completely unrelated to this picture

Confirm version 9 will be released in 2009 with a series of 9 webinars….hence the cheesy title, sorry! 

We will be emailing our users a list of the webinar dates, topics and times along with “how to register” as attendance by controlled invitation (login and password are needed).  Please lookout for an email in the next few days.

The first webinar is a “v9 overview” on October 5th.  The next 8 will give a demonstration of specific “areas” that are enhanced in version 9.  One such topic is Mobile working.

Each webinar will comprise an introduction (in case anyone has not attended an on-line webinar before), a 20 minute demonstration and a short Q&A session.  Any un-asked questions can be sent to us by email later.  Demonstrations will be in the context of managing the maintenance of public infrastructure assets.  This year, there has been a lot added to Confirm; hence the need for 9 webinars.

We will also be holding four webinars for non-users who wish to find out how Confirm helps increase the efficiency of public street scene infrastructure services.

And finally, the picture?  Well, a web search offered me a choice of images to do with Police, Ducati, Pop group images, a set of pristine hammers or a stealth fighter – nothing to do with Confirm but I would have loved to have flown one of these. 

Hope to be with you online during the v9 launch webinars: October through November.

Confirm On demand (Software-As-A-Service)

What does SAAS mean to you and your organisation?

Much discussion is currently being had in regard to SAAS in particular Confirm as a service, topics such as hosting, on demand, but what is your definition?  We would like to understand what you think it is, how you see it impacting your organisation and whether you are planning your future service delivery through SAAS.

Answers on a postcard, please. Richard